Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9422…f273 other 1009 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (848 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,370 (+144%) realized +$4,473 · open +$897
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%308W / 390L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day847.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$967
sports 30% +$53
weather 3% +$2
politics 2% −$8
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$4
tech 1% +$26
culture 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (848 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 698 +32.6% +19.9% 44% 37% -4.9%
≤30d 698 +32.6% +19.9% 44% 37% -4.9%
≤90d 698 +32.6% +19.9% 44% 37% -4.9%
all 698 +32.6% +19.9% 44% 37% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover847.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.9% 37% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 30% -14.0%
15% -2.0% 26% -22.3%
20% -11.6% 20% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3,086
Realized+$4,473
Unrealized+$897
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses308 / 390
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions498
Markets (closed)698 / 1009
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day847.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 498 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 78¢ 81¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 48¢ $91 $71 −$21 (-23%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Over 39¢ 32¢ $84 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 48¢ $1 $41 +$40 (+4750%)
Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $1 $39 +$37 (+2500%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? No 68¢ 41¢ $64 $38 −$26 (-40%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 4.5 Corners Under 75¢ 69¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ben Johns be traded before the Major League Pickleball trade deadline? Yes 2¢ 45¢ $1 $33 +$31 (+2140%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners Over 39¢ 29¢ $43 $33 −$11 (-25%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 59¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
Will Stacy Rogers win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? Yes 1¢ 31¢ $1 $30 +$29 (+2281%)
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? Yes 33¢ 51¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+55%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? No 36¢ 55¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+53%)
Will Exeter Chiefs win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Yes 2¢ 42¢ $1 $26 +$24 (+2025%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 37¢ $39 $24 −$15 (-38%)
Will Micael win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 34¢ $1 $23 +$21 (+1582%)
Will Birk Risa win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 31¢ $1 $21 +$20 (+1470%)
Will Kevin Long win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 30¢ $1 $20 +$19 (+1415%)
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No 55¢ 58¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Marcelo Silva win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 28¢ $1 $19 +$18 (+1307%)
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 1¢ 50¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+4436%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-31? No 62¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5) CDT Real Oruro 81¢ 51¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-37%)
Will Eddie Segura win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 2¢ 26¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1192%)
Will Chris Brady win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 2¢ 31¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1465%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -41%
Will Leviatán Esports be the last AMER team standing at Masters London Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Re Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots Jun 17 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -39%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 17 $1 +$5 +823%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $124 +$4 +3%
Maghreb AS de Fès leading at halftime? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +72%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Kawkab AC to score first vs. IR Tanger? Jun 17 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 −$10 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $188 −$70 -37%
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 +91%
Will Cape Verde be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Grou Jun 17 $0 $0 +910%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -31%
Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves Jun 17 $1 +$1 +148%
Dean Henderson: 2+ saves Jun 17 $1 +$1 +148%
Will Yan Diomande join Chelsea? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$19 +1855%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: WOL (-2.5) vs Kuaishou Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $56 −$8 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 AL East title? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40m
Will Texas Ranchers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading o BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Leviatán Esports be the last AMER team standing at Masters London SELL No 1¢ $1 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win the World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of SELL No 65¢ $5 2h
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 3h
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Re SELL No 95¢ $6 3h
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of SELL No 65¢ $1 3h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $3 4h
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 4h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 0¢ $0 4h
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1499 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June SELL Yes 28¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,086.00 · official $3,447.17 · 3500 history records