Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x941c…4e6d other 21 markets active 20h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$41 (+17%) realized +$52 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$40
sports 15% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.5% +5.4% 100% 100% +5.5%
≤30d 6 +21.7% +10.1% 83% 83% +30.0%
≤90d 6 +21.7% +10.1% 83% 83% +30.0%
all 6 +21.7% +10.1% 83% 83% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 83% +30.0%
10% -0.4% 50% +17.6%
15% -10.1% 33% +6.2%
20% -18.9% 33% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.91 per $1 lost it wins $6.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +31%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $78 +$52 +67%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $5 +$5 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY 84¢ $12 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 85¢ $10 32h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a BUY 24¢ $4 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 5d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 77¢ $6 9d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 9d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 60¢ $78 13d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.49 · official $83.50 (match) · 39 history records