Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x941b…8896 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,089 (+23%) realized +$1,100 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$640
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$360
crypto 40% +$638
sports 4% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +19.6% +8.2% 44% 41% +23.2%
≤30d 30 +7.7% -2.6% 40% 37% +5.3%
≤90d 30 +7.7% -2.6% 40% 37% +5.3%
all 31 +9.0% -1.4% 42% 39% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 39% +18.1%
10% -10.8% 39% +6.8%
15% -19.4% 39% -3.5%
20% -27.3% 32% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$40 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$1,219
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)31 / 43
History coverage277d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a team from China win the 2021 LoL Worlds? Jun 20 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$42 +69%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 −$31 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$79 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$42 +164%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $231 −$6 -2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 −$66 -80%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$163 +160%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $31 +$202 +657%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 01 $1,562 +$770 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 33h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $68 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.06 · official $1,219.06 (match) · 78 history records