Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9413…9f89 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$4
other 26% −$30
politics 21% +$20
sports 14% +$17
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
weather 0% −$15
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -0.5% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.2%
all 95 +10.8% +0.3% 38% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -9.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -18.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -26.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 59
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage477d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $154 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $294 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $139 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $139 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$13 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $174 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $151 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $150 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $197 +$10 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $221 +$5 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $115 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $109 +$3 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $390 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $962 +$16 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $447 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $204 +$4 +2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $106 −$4 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,060 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Dec 04 $2 +$4 +236%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $8 −$6 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $154 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $154 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $154 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $155 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $141 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $140 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $47 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $107 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $154 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $137 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $140 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $154 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $154 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $140 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $76 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records