Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9411…e499 world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%30W / 62L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$6
other 23% +$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% $0
economics 9% $0
crypto 3% +$4
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 23 +1.3% -8.4% 35% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 71 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 3% -9.3%
all 92 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage342d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $88 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $92 −$2 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $45 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $71 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $130 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $89 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $21 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $38 +$8 +20%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $37 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $27 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $9 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 12 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $45 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $47 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $47 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $45 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $47 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $43 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $30 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $18 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $24 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $26 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $49 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $45 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $45 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.69 · official $29.57 (match) · 381 history records