Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9410…1224 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$11
other 27% −$21
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.6% -23.7% 40% 40% -7.8%
≤30d 46 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 39% -13.9%
≤90d 46 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 39% -13.9%
all 46 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 39% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 39% -13.9%
10% -33.4% 39% -22.1%
15% -39.8% 39% -29.7%
20% -45.7% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 58
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $25 +$11 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 +$5 +165%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 −$11 -32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $16 −$3 -21%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Fr Jun 26 $3 +$12 +397%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 +$4 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $3 +$3 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$4 +46%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$22 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -83%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $37 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $5 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $25 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $15 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $26 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $10 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 18h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Croati BUY 2¢ $1 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Colombia vs. P BUY 6¢ $2 18h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Algeria BUY 21¢ $3 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $20 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 40h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY 3¢ $1 41h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Fr BUY 20¢ $3 41h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spai BUY 5¢ $1 41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $3 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records