Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
94 0x940e…058a sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$744 (+16%) realized +$756 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$560
7 days+$491
14 days+$524
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$286
other 36% +$244
politics 5% +$116
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 48% +3.5%
≤30d 46 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 72 +15.4% +4.4% 50% 50% +5.7%
all 72 +15.4% +4.4% 50% 50% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 50% +5.7%
10% -5.6% 50% -4.4%
15% -14.7% 47% -13.6%
20% -23.1% 38% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$35 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$756
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions8
Markets (closed)72 / 80
History coverage79d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 51¢ 48¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 15¢ 20¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$5 -5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$5 -5%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $62 +$20 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $110 +$136 +124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$33 +321%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 27 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $10 +$15 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 51¢ $102 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 64¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 22h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 67¢ $101 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $101 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $101 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $97 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $97 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $96 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $102 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $101 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $62 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $110 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.31 · official $608.31 (match) · 229 history records