Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x940b…1f57 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$3 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$23
crypto 21% −$14
other 11% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 34% -9.0%
≤30d 83 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 83 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 34% -9.0%
all 83 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 34% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -17.7%
15% -30.8% 33% -25.7%
20% -37.6% 33% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions17
Markets (closed)83 / 100
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 46¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+107%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 38¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 37¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Melissa Mullins 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Kevin Borjas 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 29¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$11 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $5 +$17 +325%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 +$32 +172%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$16 +212%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -33%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $5 +$11 +216%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $31 +$21 +68%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $3 +$15 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 38¢ $10 1h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 17¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 43¢ $25 9h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 33¢ $5 9h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 21¢ $5 10h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 11h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Giorgia Pedone 21¢ $2 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $14 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $12 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 56¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 28h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alicia Dudeney 13¢ $5 29h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 27¢ $3 29h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $2 29h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $1 29h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 18¢ $1 29h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 37¢ $8 29h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 29¢ $3 29h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 29¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $2 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 30h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 44¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.58 · official $95.59 (match) · 165 history records