Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9406…dc5c world 27 markets active 19h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 35% −$39
politics 10% +$2
economics 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 25 -6.0% -14.9% 16% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -13.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -22.2%
15% -30.5% 0% -29.7%
20% -37.3% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage301d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $62 −$19 -31%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 -7%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $21 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records