trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 40% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 38% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 38% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 25 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 16% | 0% | -13.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 0% | -13.9% |
| 10% | -23.1% | 0% | -22.2% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -36.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-32%) |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $53 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $62 | −$19 | -31% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $12 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 26 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $34 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Aug 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Aug 20 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Aug 19 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 19 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 19 | $6 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Aug 19 | $43 | $0 | +0% |