Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9403…7361 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$59 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%75W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$309
14 days+$303
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$246
other 39% +$433
politics 2% +$11
crypto 1% −$86
tech 1% +$24
world 1% +$36
economics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +72.3% +55.9% 47% 47% +52.5%
≤30d 22 +74.8% +58.1% 45% 45% +37.4%
≤90d 139 -50.3% -55.0% 14% 14% -57.8%
all 207 +20.1% +8.7% 36% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 36% -8.1%
10% -1.7% 36% -16.9%
15% -11.2% 34% -24.9%
20% -19.9% 32% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$46 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses75 / 132
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)207 / 211
History coverage240d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 24¢ 30¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$135 +874%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $20 −$16 -76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$44 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$33 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$26 +127%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$83 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$62 +307%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $187 −$185 -99%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 29 $80 +$300 +376%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 16 $48 +$14 +29%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $546 −$535 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$596 +596%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 25 $90 −$88 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 22 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $174 +$72 +41%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Apr 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5) Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $50 +$50 +99%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 12 $36 −$34 -93%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC leading at halftime? Apr 12 $40 +$54 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $21 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $30 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $31 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $25 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 6h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 5¢ $5 6h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 20¢ $20 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $31 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $38 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 11¢ $21 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 9¢ $31 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.86 · official $116.86 (match) · 565 history records