Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x9401…fab2 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$26
politics 13% −$3
economics 11% −$3
sports 4% −$10
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 8% -9.7%
all 100 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 8% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 8% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage84d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $504 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $530 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $386 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $388 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $230 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $681 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $459 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $467 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $404 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $470 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $486 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 13 $480 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $428 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $246 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $144 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 23d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $94 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 25d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $223 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $221 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $221 30d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $218 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.01 · official $173.01 (match) · 285 history records