Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93fe…7a3e
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
7.5score
+$15 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$37
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit14%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $2 +$3 +152%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 25 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 Mar 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% +$17
politics 17% −$2
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+95.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +88.6% +70.6% 100% 50% +25.9%
≤30d 3 +109.7% +89.7% 100% 67% +33.2%
≤90d 7 +116.2% +95.6% 86% 71% +38.3%
all 7 +116.2% +95.6% 86% 71% +38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +95.6% 71% +38.3%
10% +76.9% 71% +25.1%
15% +59.8% 71% +13.0%
20% +44.2% 71% +1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.69 · official $36.70 (match) · 95 history records