trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 23¢ | $13 | $11 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 50¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 51¢ | 46¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-11%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$9 | +170% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $21 | +$2 | +8% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | May 19 | $2 | +$3 | +152% |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | Apr 25 | $2 | +$2 | +92% |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | Mar 29 | $1 | +$4 | +426% |
| Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-22? | Mar 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 | Mar 28 | $1 | +$1 | +67% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +88.6% | +70.6% | 100% | 50% | +25.9% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +109.7% | +89.7% | 100% | 67% | +33.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +116.2% | +95.6% | 86% | 71% | +38.3% |
| all | 7 | +116.2% | +95.6% | 86% | 71% | +38.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +95.6% | 71% | +38.3% |
| 10% | +76.9% | 71% | +25.1% |
| 15% | +59.8% | 71% | +13.0% |
| 20% | +44.2% | 71% | +1.9% |