Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93fd…7e2f other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$44,854 (+56%) realized +$44,596 · open +$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%29W / 534L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day89.6pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$3,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$4,166
politics 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-83.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 484 -90.2% -91.1% 2% 2% -84.9%
≤30d 533 -83.1% -84.7% 5% 4% -57.0%
≤90d 563 -81.8% -83.5% 5% 5% -51.2%
all 563 -81.8% -83.5% 5% 5% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -83.5% 5% -51.2%
10% ← realistic here -85.1% 4% -55.9%
15% -86.5% 4% -60.2%
20% -87.9% 4% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -75% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,298 vs −$223 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3,957
Realized+$44,596
Unrealized+$258
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses29 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)563 / 110
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$725
Trades / day89.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $1,600 $2,495 +$895 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $671 $993 +$322 (+48%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 30¢ 5¢ $1,038 $184 −$854 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $149 $155 +$6 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $221 $108 −$113 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 25 $168 −$57 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 25 $32 −$50 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 25 $7 −$11 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 25 $83 −$77 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jun 25 $1 −$73 -6978%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 25 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 25 $666 −$694 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 25 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 25 $117 −$126 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 25 $1,860 −$1,853 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Jun 25 $106 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 25 $278 −$481 -173%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 25 $209 −$1,147 -549%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 25 $472 −$474 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 25 $33 −$26 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 25 $68 +$44 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 25 $167 −$162 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,956.51 · official $3,795.22 · 3500 history records