Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93fb…3e4a
other · 105 markets active 3h ago
1.0score
+$197,288 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$406,389 · open −$211,823
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$398,574
Realized+$406,389
Unrealized−$211,823
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$398
Open positions58
Markets (closed)54 / 105
History coverage70d
Avg bet$6,189
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 58 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,674
7 days+$28,897
14 days+$32,713
30 days+$157,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $71,884 $68,940 −$2,944 (-4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $45,958 $48,652 +$2,693 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $87,277 $37,947 −$49,330 (-57%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $39,165 $32,097 −$7,069 (-18%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $29,827 $25,475 −$4,351 (-15%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $10,561 $23,795 +$13,234 (+125%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 81¢ $15,493 $19,303 +$3,810 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 22¢ 31¢ $11,276 $15,832 +$4,556 (+40%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $20,679 $15,347 −$5,332 (-26%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $18,704 $12,494 −$6,210 (-33%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $7,831 $10,173 +$2,342 (+30%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 58¢ 59¢ $9,539 $9,783 +$244 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $9,688 $8,045 −$1,643 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6,293 $6,939 +$646 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4,650 $5,451 +$800 (+17%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? Yes 50¢ 66¢ $4,014 $5,318 +$1,305 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5,600 $5,225 −$375 (-7%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $4,323 $4,502 +$179 (+4%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $35,994 $4,384 −$31,610 (-88%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5,014 $4,075 −$939 (-19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $36,830 $3,863 −$32,967 (-90%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $33,588 $3,696 −$29,892 (-89%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $9,390 $3,288 −$6,101 (-65%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $25,719 $2,841 −$22,878 (-89%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $3,977 $2,415 −$1,563 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $871 −$871 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? Jun 12 $803 −$803 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $19,239 +$30,570 +159%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $10,250 +$1,625 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,853 +$805 +28%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,395 +$1,386 +99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5,579 +$3,206 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $24,771 +$23,307 +94%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $3,717 −$977 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $1,212 +$10,249 +846%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $3,161 +$21,086 +667%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $8,000 +$68,562 +857%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $16,057 +$289,307 +1802%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 08 $287 −$284 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 07 $8,347 −$8,048 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 05 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 05 $4 −$2 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 05 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $7,631 −$338 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 03 $8,644 −$8,632 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 03 $14,264 −$14,233 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $8,050 +$196 +2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 29 $33,500 −$923 -3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 28 $513 −$68 -13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 28 $2,498 −$37 -2%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $10 −$2 -21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $24,325 −$50 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 28 $24,712 −$102 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $1,677 −$1,677 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $1,841 −$5,170 -281%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $406 −$406 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 22 $950 +$50 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $260 +$877 +337%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $675 −$660 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 17 $621 −$621 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $364 −$364 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2,776 +$2,434 +88%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 16 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $875 +$1,747 +200%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10,403 +$2,360 +23%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $2,050 +$2,862 +140%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 07 $650 −$650 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 07 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 28% +$297,498
other 21% +$1,890
crypto 20% +$30,359
finance 15% −$99,917
politics 8% −$8,621
economics 4% −$139
sports 4% −$25,601
tech 0% +$769
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 3h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 7h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY Yes 14¢ $0 8h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 9h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 19h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 24h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 25h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 28h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 31h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 36h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $180 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 33% +115.5%
≤30d 14 +171.2% +145.4% 64% 64% +164.6%
≤90d 54 +48.0% +33.9% 31% 28% +127.5%
all 54 +48.0% +33.9% 31% 28% +127.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.9% 28% +127.5%
10% +21.1% 26% +105.7%
15% ← realistic here +9.4% 22% +85.8%
20% -1.3% 22% +67.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398,574.47 · official $398,755.99 (match) · 3500 history records