Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93fa…9462 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized +$38 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$48
sports 11% +$35
crypto 10% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +31.7%
≤30d 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +31.7%
≤90d 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +31.7%
all 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.2% 57% +31.7%
10% +25.9% 57% +19.1%
15% +13.8% 57% +7.6%
20% +2.6% 29% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 2¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$32 +388%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +47%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +192%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.94 · official $9.94 (match) · 24 history records