Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93f9…3e96 weather 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +14.8% +3.9% 84% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 57 -3.9% -13.1% 61% 35% -6.3%
≤90d 60 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 35% -6.6%
all 60 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 35% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 35% -6.6%
10% -22.0% 27% -15.6%
15% -29.6% 22% -23.7%
20% -36.5% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 81¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? No 87¢ 79¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 57¢ 76¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 64¢ 99¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 66¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? No 83¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 75¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 25? May 24 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 24? May 23 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 20? May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 20? May 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18? May 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 18? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18? May 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 18? May 17 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $10 55m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 64¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 84¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 87¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 87¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 72¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 83¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.04 · official $146.21 (match) · 211 history records