Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93f9…8688
politics · 424 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$34 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$24
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses234 / 187
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)421 / 424
History coverage217d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 3 History 421 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $7 $12 +$5 (+69%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 10¢ 24¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+135%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $6 +$10 +156%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -42%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $3 $0 -9%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 −$2 -55%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1 +$2 +151%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? May 31 $3 −$1 -25%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $3 +$1 +20%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? May 30 $2 −$2 -84%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $19 +$1 +8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5 May 29 $12 +$2 +20%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5 May 29 $24 +$1 +4%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 May 29 $5 −$2 -38%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $12 +$1 +5%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 +$10 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 −$3 -40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 28 $1 +$1 +57%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $18 +$2 +10%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $6 −$2 -26%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $3 +$1 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $4 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $3 +$7 +226%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? May 20 $1 $0 -35%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? May 20 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 18 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$11
world 27% +$76
other 16% −$36
sports 9% −$33
tech 3% +$20
finance 2% +$8
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$6
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $3 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes $3 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 40h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 40h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 40h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 47h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $2 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $0 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No $2 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No $3 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $3 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No $1 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $3 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No $0 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No $1 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 28% -6.3%
≤30d 54 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 31% -10.7%
≤90d 117 +6.2% -3.9% 45% 32% -8.3%
all 421 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 41% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 41% -8.4%
10% -13.3% 32% -17.1%
15% -21.6% 27% -25.1%
20% -29.3% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.83 · official $23.83 (match) · 1243 history records