Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93f6…4814 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65,734 (-17%) realized −$64,975 · open −$759
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 93L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,893per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$6,783est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,630
7 days−$7,906
14 days−$25,377
30 days−$25,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$60,203
crypto 1% −$5,489
other 1% −$2,630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -52.2%
≤30d 18 -70.2% -73.1% 11% 11% -74.2%
≤90d 136 -15.9% -23.9% 32% 30% -25.1%
all 136 -15.9% -23.9% 32% 30% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 30% -25.1%
10% -31.2% 30% -32.2%
15% ← realistic here -37.8% 30% -38.8%
20% -43.9% 30% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$3,869) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,436 vs −$2,778 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$64,975
Unrealized−$759
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$6,783
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage67d
Avg bet$2,893
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 39¢ 16¢ $1,319 $560 −$759 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,250 −$1,228 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,991 +$2,218 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $796 −$791 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,667 −$2,630 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $719 −$702 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $1,425 −$1,425 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,078 −$1,072 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,328 −$2,325 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,640 −$2,600 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,011 +$2,649 +132%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2,313 −$2,275 -98%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 11 $2,121 −$2,090 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,547 −$3,485 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,635 −$2,587 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3,976 −$3,958 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $1,347 −$98 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $498 −$487 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,546 −$2,491 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $10,038 −$9,970 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 13 $4,527 −$4,524 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $4,687 −$4,668 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 13 $5,385 −$5,376 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $5,779 −$5,701 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2,787 −$2,746 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2,799 +$7,641 +273%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $4,746 −$4,655 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $3,063 +$6,927 +226%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $3,529 +$3,382 +96%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $4,359 −$4,287 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 11 $4,240 −$4,171 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $2,899 −$2,840 -98%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoff May 11 $1,062 −$1,058 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $3,948 −$3,883 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3,661 −$3,604 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $2,932 −$2,885 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $6,521 +$5,599 +86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $1,506 +$5,987 +398%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $1,506 +$5,030 +334%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner May 09 $2,664 −$2,611 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 09 $3,041 −$2,982 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $441 −$435 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3,952 −$3,869 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner May 09 $4,357 +$5,158 +118%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 09 $896 −$894 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 09 $1,757 −$1,717 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 09 $3,352 −$3,342 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 09 $2,608 −$2,605 -100%
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia May 08 $5,092 +$7,857 +154%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner May 05 $3,783 −$3,722 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects - Game 3 Winner May 01 $2,871 −$2,871 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $31 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $2 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $273 14m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 15m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $3 15m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $760 15m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $24 15m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 38¢ $3 16m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 38¢ $149 18m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $81 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 41¢ $125 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 41¢ $1,043 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $4,209 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $88 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $108 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $1,061 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $121 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $136 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $362 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $97 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $551 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $147 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.64 · official $559.64 (match) · 1873 history records