Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93f5…1424 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$689 (-11%) realized −$689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$285
crypto 27% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 3 -28.3% -35.2% 67% 33% -48.5%
≤90d 22 -15.6% -23.6% 59% 36% -29.6%
all 31 -14.0% -22.2% 58% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -19.3%
10% -29.6% 29% -27.0%
15% -36.4% 19% -34.1%
20% -42.7% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$169 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage100d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $74 +$3 +4%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 29 $68 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $134 −$126 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $132 +$20 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $120 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 17 $100 −$94 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 10 $67 −$63 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 07 $238 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 05 $196 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $216 +$21 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 03 $36 −$33 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 02 $33 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 01 $76 −$71 -93%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Gr Mar 30 $73 +$37 +52%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Mar 29 $58 +$15 +27%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B Mar 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Mar 27 $425 −$425 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 27 $151 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup Mar 27 $109 +$150 +138%
Counter-Strike: Matrix vs Wave Esports (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Grou Mar 24 $101 +$159 +156%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challeng Mar 23 $102 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Mar 19 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America Series Mar 18 $283 −$283 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Mar 18 $249 +$74 +30%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc Mar 15 $293 −$293 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Prestige (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Mar 15 $833 +$208 +25%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Mar 13 $600 +$233 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playo Mar 12 $354 +$246 +70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MOUZ NXT (BO5) - European Pro League Series 5 P Mar 11 $237 +$117 +49%
Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs NAVI Junior (+1.5) Mar 11 $246 −$9 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $74 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY 9z Team 90¢ $68 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $134 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $132 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $94 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $41 62d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $67 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $238 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $103 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $93 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $216 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $36 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 76d
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $76 78d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Gr BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $73 80d
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY AaB Esport 79¢ $58 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $29 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $34 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $37 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $35 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $4 81d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs SAW (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B BUY SAW 11¢ $33 81d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY UNO MILLE 21¢ $241 82d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY UNO MILLE 21¢ $32 82d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY UNO MILLE 21¢ $4 82d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY UNO MILLE 21¢ $149 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records