Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93f4…1daf other 658 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$754 (+1%) realized +$754 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%373W / 285L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$501
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$141
other 30% +$397
crypto 5% −$637
finance 0% −$30
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +125.4% +103.9% 42% 33% -45.6%
≤30d 116 +10.1% -0.4% 53% 49% -20.0%
≤90d 658 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 51% -9.7%
all 658 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 51% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 51% -9.7%
10% -11.5% 46% -18.4%
15% -20.1% 43% -26.3%
20% -27.9% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$34 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses373 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)658 / 658
History coverage79d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 658 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $362 −$362 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $48 −$38 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$5 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$15 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $250 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$27 +512%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $20 +$46 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 26 $35 $0 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $215 +$185 +86%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $231 −$230 -100%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $153 −$150 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Gaston vs. Monfils: Match O/U 38.5 May 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 25 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $52 −$15 -29%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $32 +$38 +119%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $61 +$9 +14%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $71 +$54 +76%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $58 +$12 +21%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$44 +172%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser May 24 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $52 +$18 +36%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 24 $54 +$16 +29%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 +$37 +109%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed May 24 $34 +$36 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $63 −$62 -99%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl May 24 $39 +$31 +81%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $61 +$9 +14%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 24 $40 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $20 +$59 +291%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 24 $35 −$34 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Marie Bouzkova May 24 $61 +$9 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 24 $102 +$63 +62%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $43 −$43 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 24 $41 +$52 +128%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $85 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1362 history records