Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

93 0x93f0…b16a other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,936 (-30%) realized −$1,932 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$728per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+46.2%	+32.3%	75%	62%	-38.9%
≤30d	8	+46.2%	+32.3%	75%	62%	-38.9%
≤90d	8	+46.2%	+32.3%	75%	62%	-38.9%
all	8	+46.2%	+32.3%	75%	62%	-38.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.3%	62%	-38.9%
10%	+19.6%	62%	-44.8%
15%	+8.1%	50%	-50.1%
20%	-2.5%	38%	-55.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$105 vs −$1,293 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$528

Realized−$1,932

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$728

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$532	$528	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$452	+$115	+26%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$12	+$23	+187%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$263	+$137	+52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$180	+$90	+50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	+$129	+250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,582	−$2,576	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2,461	+$139	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$536	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$52	3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	36¢	$35	3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$467	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$400	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$263	9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$180	25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$2,582	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$2,461	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.50 · official $528.50 (match) · 17 history records