Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ed…a4cb sports 418 markets active 12h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$320 (-1%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%192W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$696
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 54% -9.8%
≤30d 157 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 396 -2.6% -11.8% 46% 45% -12.4%
all 418 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 45% -12.1%
10% -20.1% 43% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 39% -28.2%
20% -34.9% 32% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$47 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses192 / 226
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions0
Markets (closed)418 / 418
History coverage97d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 418 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $104 −$103 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $81 +$45 +56%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $126 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $99 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $55 +$100 +181%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $73 +$71 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$37 +29%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $124 +$18 +14%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$43 +40%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $82 +$36 +44%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $56 +$66 +118%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $70 −$63 -90%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $80 +$78 +98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $91 +$58 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $64 +$70 +110%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $116 +$47 +40%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $111 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 +$96 +188%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $94 +$59 +63%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $74 +$67 +91%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $66 +$59 +89%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $44 +$30 +68%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $201 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $81 +$53 +66%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $56 +$104 +185%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $47 −$46 -98%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $43 −$42 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 07 $46 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $46 +$99 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 42¢ $22 12h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 68¢ $104 13h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $127 13h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 65¢ $77 15h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 47¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 99¢ $55 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 67¢ $37 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 61¢ $62 16h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 68¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 64¢ $51 16h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $145 17h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 68¢ $101 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $145 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $99 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 99¢ $155 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 34¢ $55 20h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 10¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 11¢ $2 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 12¢ $2 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $15 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 65¢ $10 24h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 42¢ $18 37h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 10¢ $3 37h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 33¢ $33 37h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 85¢ $54 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 23¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 46¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 28¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 32¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 29¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 772 history records