Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ed…660f sports 13 markets active 22h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$344 (-11%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$366
14 days−$366
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$247
other 17% −$56
sports 15% −$83
crypto 7% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 31% -19.8%
≤30d 13 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 31% -19.8%
≤90d 13 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 31% -19.8%
all 13 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 31% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 31% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 23% -27.5%
15% -35.2% 15% -34.5%
20% -41.6% 8% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$95 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $11 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $127 −$98 -77%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1,971 −$247 -13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $147 −$111 -76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $231 +$19 +8%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +27%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $200 +$13 +7%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $18 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $188 +$16 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $66 +$14 +21%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $229 +$23 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $11 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $8 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $18 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 17¢ $25 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 55¢ $11 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 94¢ $141 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 24¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 73¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 73¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 79¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 81¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 81¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 81¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 82¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $231 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 78¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 97¢ $213 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 91¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 91¢ $173 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records