Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ec…8d7c sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$264 (-6%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$59
14 days+$104
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$189
sports 26% −$139
other 11% +$33
politics 4% −$1
weather 2% +$21
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.5% +0.9% 38% 25% -1.6%
≤30d 38 +22.0% +10.4% 45% 34% -3.9%
≤90d 49 +13.7% +2.9% 45% 29% -11.1%
all 65 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 31% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 31% -15.6%
10% -14.8% 31% -23.7%
15% -23.1% 26% -31.0%
20% -30.6% 26% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage148d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $16 +$26 +158%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? Jun 28 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 28 $121 −$5 -4%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $29 +$55 +194%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $27 +$57 +212%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 23 $12 $0 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$16 +178%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$15 +150%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$13 +104%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$19 +317%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$14 +117%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $44 −$14 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 13 $28 +$22 +79%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $69 −$18 -26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $64 −$16 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $53 +$19 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 22 $96 −$8 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $501 −$166 -33%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $300 +$4 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 08 $140 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $402 +$6 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 64¢ $61 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? SELL Yes 56¢ $54 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $16 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 34¢ $29 21h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 22h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $27 22h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $9 22h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $3 22h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $17 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 16¢ $14 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $80 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 68¢ $61 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 68¢ $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $66 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 54¢ $44 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 261 history records