trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +98.7% | +79.7% | 100% | 100% | +63.2% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -6.0% | -15.0% | 50% | 50% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -50.7% | -55.4% | 27% | 27% | -0.2% |
| all | 15 | -50.7% | -55.4% | 27% | 27% | -0.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -55.4% | 27% | -0.2% |
| 10% | -59.7% | 27% | -9.7% |
| 15% | -63.6% | 27% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -67.2% | 20% | -26.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 24¢ | $10 | $31 | +$21 (+210%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 14¢ | $20 | $14 | −$6 (-29%) |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 37¢ | 31¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-16%) |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 30¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 31¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-22%) |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 30¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 25 | $10 | +$15 | +152% |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? | Jun 25 | $20 | +$9 | +45% |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |
| Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? | Apr 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Apr 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | Apr 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Apr 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $100 | +$75 | +75% |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | Apr 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Apr 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Apr 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Apr 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |