Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ea…9033 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$1
other 24% −$1
sports 23% −$3
economics 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 21 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage177d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $201 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $201 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $201 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 06 $201 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $193 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $97 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $96 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 23d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $96 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $98 38d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $98 46d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 47d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $98 48d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 49d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 67d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 68d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 68d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 69d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $201 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $201 90d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 100d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $201 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $201 103d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 105d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 105d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $201 111d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $201 111d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $193 138d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 138d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $193 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records