Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x93e9…1b70 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%119W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$4
other 24% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 6% +$1
economics 6% +$1
world 3% +$39
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 97 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 125 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 1% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -8.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.0%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.51 per $1 lost it wins $16.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses119 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage564d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 +1%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 24 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chad Chig Martin win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $21 26d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 99¢ $19 27d
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No 100¢ $23 27d
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m BUY No 99¢ $15 28d
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 29d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 32d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 32d
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 32d
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $17 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 34d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $36 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 99¢ $14 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $34 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 261 history records