Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x93e5…3b8d sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$439 (+24%) realized +$442 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$411
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$465
other 20% −$60
crypto 17% +$35
world 5% −$40
finance 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +32.1% +19.5% 71% 71% +25.1%
≤30d 26 +28.6% +16.3% 69% 69% +24.5%
≤90d 31 +22.4% +10.8% 68% 68% +19.6%
all 32 +22.1% +10.5% 69% 69% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 69% +16.0%
10% -0.1% 66% +4.9%
15% -9.8% 66% -5.3%
20% -18.6% 47% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$442
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage296d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 71¢ 74¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$33 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 +$121 +262%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 +$66 +81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$57 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $75 +$31 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $86 +$55 +64%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $162 +$79 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $75 +$86 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $30 +$17 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $25 +$10 +38%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $30 +$18 +58%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 11 $299 +$35 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $36 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $51 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $15 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $15 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $5 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $30 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $20 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.65 · official $254.65 (match) · 101 history records