Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x93e4…51a1 sports 40 markets active 11h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$431 (-8%) realized −$429 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$223
sports 31% −$143
economics 15% +$31
crypto 9% −$347
politics 4% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -75.4% -77.7% 0% 0% -79.8%
≤30d 7 -75.4% -77.7% 0% 0% -79.8%
≤90d 19 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 21% -26.3%
all 37 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 32% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 32% -16.8%
10% -40.9% 32% -24.7%
15% -46.6% 24% -32.0%
20% -51.9% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$66 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage230d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$45 -63%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$7 -73%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 03 $14 −$14 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $39 +$18 +46%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 25 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $20 +$15 +78%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 10 $1,275 +$328 +26%
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? Apr 10 $276 −$253 -92%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Apr 10 $165 −$165 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $141 −$81 -57%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Nov 27 $73 −$42 -58%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Nov 27 $50 +$50 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Rams: O/U 49.5 Nov 24 $250 −$101 -40%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Nov 21 $161 −$43 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $300 +$127 +42%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 Nov 18 $200 +$192 +96%
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) Nov 18 $110 +$31 +29%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $316 −$12 -4%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 09 $200 −$80 -40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Nov 08 $204 −$204 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 08 $65 +$51 +78%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 08 $201 −$95 -47%
Warriors vs. Bucks Oct 31 $174 +$230 +132%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $500 +$136 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 13¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 14d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 12¢ $20 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 16¢ $34 21d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? SELL Yes $0 44d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 45d
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 45d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 60¢ $56 45d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 40¢ $39 45d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 52d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $44 61d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 65d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 65d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $20 65d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.92 · official $69.04 · 121 history records