trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -75.4% | -77.7% | 0% | 0% | -79.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -75.4% | -77.7% | 0% | 0% | -79.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -52.9% | -57.4% | 21% | 21% | -26.3% |
| all | 37 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 32% | 32% | -16.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.7% | 32% | -16.8% |
| 10% | -40.9% | 32% | -24.7% |
| 15% | -46.6% | 24% | -32.0% |
| 20% | -51.9% | 16% | -38.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $31 | $30 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $71 | −$45 | -63% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $13 | −$2 | -17% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$8 | -75% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $9 | −$7 | -73% |
| Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | Jun 11 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Jun 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 11 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? | May 03 | $14 | −$14 | -99% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 02 | $39 | +$18 | +46% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Apr 25 | $44 | −$3 | -7% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $20 | +$15 | +78% |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 11 | $20 | +$14 | +68% |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 10 | $25 | −$24 | -96% |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Apr 10 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Timberwolves | Apr 10 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday? | Apr 10 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Apr 10 | $1,275 | +$328 | +26% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? | Apr 10 | $276 | −$253 | -92% |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | Apr 10 | $165 | −$165 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Dec 28 | $141 | −$81 | -57% |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams | Nov 27 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Warriors | Nov 27 | $73 | −$42 | -58% |
| Timberwolves vs. Thunder | Nov 27 | $50 | +$23 | +46% |
| Spread: Thunder (-10.5) | Nov 27 | $50 | +$50 | +100% |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams: O/U 49.5 | Nov 24 | $250 | −$101 | -40% |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? | Nov 21 | $161 | −$43 | -27% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 21 | $300 | +$127 | +42% |
| Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 | Nov 18 | $200 | +$192 | +96% |
| Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | Nov 18 | $110 | +$31 | +29% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 11 | $316 | −$12 | -4% |
| Raptors vs. 76ers | Nov 09 | $200 | −$80 | -40% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 | Nov 08 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Magic | Nov 08 | $65 | +$51 | +78% |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | Nov 08 | $201 | −$95 | -47% |
| Warriors vs. Bucks | Oct 31 | $174 | +$230 | +132% |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $500 | +$136 | +27% |