Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93e3…e837 crypto 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$515 (+3%) realized +$515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%407W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$521
7 days−$413
14 days−$188
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$277
other 3% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.6% -28.1% 62% 62% -40.0%
≤30d 31 +9.0% -1.4% 84% 61% -11.6%
≤90d 672 +3.3% -6.6% 61% 31% -9.7%
all 672 +3.3% -6.6% 61% 31% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 31% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 14% -18.4%
15% -23.7% 5% -26.2%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses407 / 265
Open positions0
Markets (closed)672 / 672
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 672 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $481 −$314 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $98 +$39 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $112 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $181 +$34 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $119 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $113 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $110 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$27 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $87 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $154 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $86 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $70 +$97 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $82 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $134 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $59 +$50 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $40 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $53 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $44 +$40 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 25 $67 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $65 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 08 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 08 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 08 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 08 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 08 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 07 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 07 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 07 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 07 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 07 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 07 $23 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 07 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 07 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 07 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 07 $27 −$7 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $167 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $481 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $102 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $33 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $33 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $68 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $79 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $76 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $119 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $113 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $110 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $89 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $87 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $69 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $85 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $86 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $69 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $61 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records