Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93e2…1b8c other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-1%) realized −$138 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%67W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$102
crypto 18% −$135
politics 14% −$153
sports 11% +$243
economics 8% −$2
world 7% −$4
tech 3% −$222
finance 1% +$34
weather 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +30.0% +17.7% 48% 45% -25.4%
≤30d 34 +26.2% +14.2% 47% 44% -33.3%
≤90d 46 +19.1% +7.8% 52% 50% -14.0%
all 110 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 47% -10.5%
10% -14.6% 25% -19.1%
15% -22.8% 15% -26.9%
20% -30.4% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$43 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses67 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)110 / 131
History coverage240d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 74¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $84 $68 −$16 (-20%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 65¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$31 +1521%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$6 +55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $134 +$14 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $118 −$115 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $162 +$28 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 02 $147 +$98 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $116 +$49 +42%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Apr 20 $94 +$54 +58%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $40 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 4? Apr 03 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 3? Apr 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 1? Mar 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 28? Mar 30 $21 +$19 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26? Mar 27 $22 +$18 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 07 $96 +$24 +25%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 01 $309 −$21 -7%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $25 −$15 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 50m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 50m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 50m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 24¢ $4 51m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $4 51m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 52m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 53m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 53m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 53m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 54m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 54m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $15 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 56m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $20 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $10 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $20 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $15 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 88¢ $44 17h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 44h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $5 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.17 · official $723.17 (match) · 537 history records