Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93e1…272f politics 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,542 (-1%) realized −$1,543 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%28W / 167L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$25
14 days−$49
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$233
politics 40% −$125
sports 11% −$1,243
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$4
world 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 4% -10.1%
all 195 -4.6% -13.7% 14% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 8% -10.1%
10% -21.9% 8% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 5% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,779) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$1,543
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses28 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $214 $216 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $4,535 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,045 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $2,063 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,845 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $563 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,912 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,457 −$4 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,671 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,291 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,130 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,859 −$6 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,977 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,533 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,518 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,594 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,652 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $74 +$64 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,923 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,984 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $820 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $683 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $63 +$30 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 4h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $748 4h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $749 8h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $455 24h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $455 27h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $670 31h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $672 33h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $683 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $684 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $371 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $583 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $371 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $502 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $502 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $377 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $377 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $562 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $563 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $931 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $932 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,100 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,101 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $886 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $887 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,092 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 9d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $959 9d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $961 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.51 · official $215.51 (match) · 655 history records