Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93dc…3728 sports 2140 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$823 (-3%) realized −$817 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%961W / 1148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$315est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$61
14 days+$209
30 days+$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$678
other 6% +$228
crypto 1% +$58
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 45% -4.7%
≤30d 264 +10.6% +0.1% 55% 54% +4.4%
≤90d 1780 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 45% -12.8%
all 2109 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 45% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 45% -27.9%
20% -35.4% 43% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$817
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses961 / 1148
Est. fees paid−$315
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2109 / 2140
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 36¢ 34¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$13 +123%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$13 +82%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Fernandez Jun 16 $10 +$15 +143%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 +$40 +395%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $15 +$24 +158%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$15 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $23 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $14 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $15 3h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 44¢ $15 6h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Fernandez SELL Sonmez 99¢ $25 6h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Fernandez BUY Sonmez 40¢ $10 6h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) SELL Muchova 100¢ $38 6h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Muchova 50¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $10 23h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $15 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 24h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $15 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.16 · official $23.92 (match) · 3500 history records