Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93db…e431
sports · 740 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$610 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$611 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses413 / 323
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)736 / 740
History coverage352d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 4 History 736 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$275
14 days−$282
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 49¢ 91¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+86%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Boston Red Sox 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Vettori 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Washington State vs. Oregon State Washington State 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Hornets Bucks 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bengals vs. Bills Bengals 73¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $152 −$150 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 05 $25 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +68%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 +$2 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 29? May 28 $46 −$45 -98%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $25 +$20 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $11 +$3 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $10 +$20 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $8 +$4 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $6 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5 −$2 -44%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $5 +$5 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$144
crypto 27% −$340
other 3% +$40
tech 2% −$14
finance 2% −$150
world 0% +$2
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $5 43h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 45h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 47¢ $10 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 64¢ $10 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 62¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $152 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 59¢ $152 6d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 8d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? SELL Down 42¢ $18 8d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? BUY Down 53¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? SELL Down 100¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 52¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +21.9% +10.3% 64% 64% -75.1%
≤30d 66 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 50% -45.2%
≤90d 217 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 42% -32.0%
all 736 -3.9% -13.0% 56% 51% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 51% -16.4%
10% -21.3% 44% -24.4%
15% -28.9% 39% -31.7%
20% -35.9% 32% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.87 · official $9.87 (match) · 1326 history records