Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93da…e0bc sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$379 (-2%) realized −$379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate85%132W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$84
14 days−$411
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$326
finance 13% +$24
other 6% −$88
politics 1% +$4
world 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.6% -26.4% 80% 0% -32.7%
≤30d 104 -4.4% -13.5% 88% 11% -11.8%
≤90d 155 -3.6% -12.8% 85% 21% -11.6%
all 155 -3.6% -12.8% 85% 21% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 21% -11.6%
10% -21.1% 15% -20.0%
15% -28.8% 6% -27.7%
20% -35.7% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$66 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses132 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage47d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $74 $86 +$12 (+17%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Under 80¢ 66¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) New York Yankees 78¢ 85¢ $23 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5) Jun 22 $41 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$85 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sakkari (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Parks (-1.5) vs Brockmann (+1.5) Jun 15 $320 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 14 $396 +$4 +1%
Set Handicap: Sanchis (-1.5) vs Boyer (+1.5) Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Walton (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Huesler (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Krueger (-1.5) vs Vidmanova (+1.5) Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Romano (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Iva Jovic vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $426 +$5 +1%
Daniel Galan vs. Kimmer Coppejans: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $77 −$49 -64%
Set Handicap: Coppejans (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Swan (+1.5) Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rakhimova (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Harriet Dart vs. Kamilla Rakhimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Zdenek Kolar vs. Federico Cina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Lajal (+1.5) Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 12 $272 $0 +0%
Petr Brunclik vs. Vitaliy Sachko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Brunclik vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Boogaard (+1.5) Jun 12 $159 $0 +0%
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Dayana Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $140 +$1 +0%
Tomljanovic vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Tomljanovic vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Tomljanovic vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 11 $154 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Bondioli (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Lehecka vs. Duckworth: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5) BUY Martinez 99¢ $41 1h
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 100¢ $100 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 5d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 100¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $216 7d
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sakkari (+1.5) BUY Sakkari 100¢ $50 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 82¢ $16 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $59 7d
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) BUY Vekic 99¢ $396 8d
Set Handicap: Parks (-1.5) vs Brockmann (+1.5) BUY Brockmann 100¢ $220 9d
Set Handicap: Parks (-1.5) vs Brockmann (+1.5) BUY Brockmann 100¢ $100 9d
Set Handicap: Krueger (-1.5) vs Vidmanova (+1.5) BUY Vidmanova 100¢ $100 9d
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Huesler (+1.5) BUY Huesler 100¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Walton (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) BUY Wendelken 100¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Sanchis (-1.5) vs Boyer (+1.5) BUY Boyer 100¢ $60 9d
Set Handicap: Krueger (-1.5) vs Vidmanova (+1.5) BUY Vidmanova 100¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 100¢ $110 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 9d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 97¢ $97 9d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 100¢ $400 9d
Set Handicap: Romano (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 99¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 100¢ $60 9d
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) BUY Balshaw 99¢ $60 9d
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 100¢ $50 9d
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) BUY Balshaw 99¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.50 · official $177.50 (match) · 557 history records