Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93d9…639f crypto 374 markets active 6d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$405 (+3%) realized +$405 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%119W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$927
other 1% −$58
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$28
sports 0% −$15
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -93.4% -94.0% 0% 0% -86.3%
≤30d 10 -93.4% -94.0% 0% 0% -86.3%
≤90d 374 -9.9% -18.5% 32% 28% -17.3%
all 374 -9.9% -18.5% 32% 28% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 28% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 24% -25.2%
15% -33.4% 18% -32.4%
20% -39.9% 14% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$405
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses119 / 255
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)374 / 374
History coverage37d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 374 Trades
no open positions (216 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $70 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 16 $24 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 16 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 16 $33 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 16 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 16 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 16 $6 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 16 $15 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $36 −$30 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $156 +$32 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 15 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 15 $109 −$32 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $158 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 15 $58 +$50 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 15 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 15 $160 +$55 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $127 −$117 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 15 $46 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 15 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 15 $27 +$43 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 15 $52 −$47 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $30 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $33 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $24 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1539 history records