Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93d8…6f37 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 32% −$3
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
politics 1% −$3
sports 1% −$5
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.0% -12.3% 14% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 66 +2.7% -7.0% 38% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 6% -9.9%
10% -15.9% 6% -18.6%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.4%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage530d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 −$3 -19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $17 +$1 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $80 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $38 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $261 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $28 −$1 -4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $8 −$1 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $283 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $259 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $270 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $1 $0 +34%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 20 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $2 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $18 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.32 · official $33.01 (match) · 229 history records