Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x93d8…fbe9 world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$441 (-25%) realized −$442 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$109
politics 34% −$545
other 9% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.0% +10.3% 100% 100% +10.3%
≤30d 3 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 67% +8.6%
≤90d 7 -18.7% -26.4% 71% 29% -41.6%
all 7 -18.7% -26.4% 71% 29% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 29% -41.6%
10% -33.4% 14% -47.2%
15% -39.9% 0% -52.3%
20% -45.8% 0% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$275 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage596d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $480 $481 +$1 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $353 +$77 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $77 +$27 +35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 29 $151 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $545 −$545 -100%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Mar 28 $7 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $480 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $353 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $77 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $110 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $106 54d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $151 55d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $151 85d
Epstein client list released in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $7 177d
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? BUY No 0¢ $4 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 41¢ $545 595d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.94 · official $535.94 (match) · 16 history records