Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93d7…c7a6 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$189 (-6%) realized −$165 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day76.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$205
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 45% -30.4%
≤30d 20 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 45% -30.4%
≤90d 20 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 45% -30.4%
all 20 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 45% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 45% -30.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 35% -37.1%
15% -44.8% 35% -43.2%
20% -50.2% 30% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$43 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,114
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions29
Markets (closed)20 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day76.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage FlyQuest 37¢ 38¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs OpTic Texas 81¢ 78¢ $226 $216 −$10 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoffs Johnny Speeds 80¢ 86¢ $146 $156 +$10 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Procyon Gaming 60¢ 60¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs Mentality Monster 72¢ 62¢ $149 $128 −$20 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group D Misa Esports 63¢ 64¢ $117 $118 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 55¢ 56¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 50¢ 50¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 48¢ 48¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage LOS 40¢ 40¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs eSuba 53¢ 51¢ $90 $87 −$4 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Millennium Esports 45¢ 42¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 23¢ 22¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage QT DIG∞ 74¢ 73¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Playoffs BIG Academy 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs NEW VISION 82¢ 78¢ $44 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Game Hunters 59¢ 58¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group A Spirit Academy 44¢ 46¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Lilmix 65¢ 68¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Stage TYLOO 45¢ 46¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs FearX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage SCARZ 40¢ 40¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs FUT Turkuaz (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs FUT Turkuaz 29¢ 36¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 72¢ 66¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage paiN Academy 51¢ 44¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $142 +$175 +124%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ Jun 27 $21 +$17 +83%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $14 +$10 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $207 −$204 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Cal Jun 26 $45 +$5 +11%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $19 +$12 +62%
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs FearX (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se Jun 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $146 −$125 -85%
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $50 +$56 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $4 +$1 +36%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag Jun 25 $4 +$4 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 37¢ $8 47m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $11 47m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $17 47m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $33 47m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 37¢ $8 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $7 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $17 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $14 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $2 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $37 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 37¢ $7 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $3 48m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $61 49m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 40¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 23¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Lilmix 66¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 60¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 23¢ $4 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $1 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $2 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $2 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $5 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $2 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $2 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $10 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $10 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $8 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $19 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 48¢ $94 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.36 · official $2,114.36 (match) · 133 history records