Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93d5…0a45 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,785 (-22%) realized −$6,788 · open −$1,997
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%28W / 87L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,178
7 days−$7,840
14 days−$7,854
30 days−$6,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$5,009
crypto 12% −$2,010
other 6% −$1,784
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.1% -19.6% 45% 36% -37.3%
≤30d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 44% -27.3%
≤90d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 44% -27.3%
all 115 -18.4% -26.2% 24% 22% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 22% -27.7%
10% -33.3% 21% -34.6%
15% -39.7% 17% -40.9%
20% -45.6% 17% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$199 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$6,788
Unrealized−$1,997
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses28 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage196d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 5¢ $2,143 $150 −$1,993 (-93%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 50¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10,751 −$9,566 -89%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,391 −$1,391 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4,684 +$4,433 +95%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $1,025 +$325 +32%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $2,424 +$21 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $2,347 −$630 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $800 −$5 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $121 +$111 +92%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $509 +$382 +75%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,154 −$1,509 -70%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $600 −$600 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $880 −$864 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,574 +$826 +52%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 01 $0 $0 +92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $957 +$2,178 +228%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,012 +$305 +30%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 6? Feb 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 5? Jan 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 25? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 27? Dec 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 25? Dec 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 26? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 30? Dec 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 27? Dec 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 27? Dec 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 26? Dec 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 25? Dec 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 24? Dec 24 $40 −$37 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 24? Dec 24 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 24? Dec 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 25? Dec 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 25? Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 24? Dec 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 25? Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 25? Dec 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 23? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 25? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 24? Dec 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 23? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 27? Dec 22 $460 −$60 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 24? Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 22? Dec 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 22? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 23? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 26? Dec 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 25? Dec 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $4 +$21 +460%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $1,185 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $371 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $367 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $10 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $10 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 10¢ $1,000 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1,500 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1,344 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $3 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $140 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $85 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $4 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $2 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $16 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $888 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $18 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $151 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1,300 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 54¢ $272 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 54¢ $1 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 54¢ $7 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.16 · official $151.16 (match) · 722 history records