Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x93d5…46eb sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$136 (+19%) realized +$177 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$74
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$34
other 14% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +32.9% +20.3% 71% 71% +6.5%
≤30d 8 +35.3% +22.4% 75% 75% +12.5%
≤90d 8 +35.3% +22.4% 75% 75% +12.5%
all 8 +35.3% +22.4% 75% 75% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 75% +12.5%
10% +10.7% 75% +1.8%
15% +0.0% 75% -8.1%
20% -9.8% 75% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$52 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 38¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $51 −$3 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$39 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $66 +$37 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $47 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $51 39h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $66 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.35 · official $158.54 (match) · 18 history records