Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93cf…29d1 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$389 (+10%) realized +$373 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 40L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$168
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$323
other 12% +$77
world 8% −$52
crypto 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.4% -17.1% 42% 42% -19.2%
≤30d 54 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 47% -5.3%
all 83 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 48% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 48% -0.2%
10% -19.2% 45% -9.8%
15% -27.0% 41% -18.5%
20% -34.2% 35% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions8
Markets (closed)83 / 91
History coverage131d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $25 $56 +$31 (+122%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 69¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 41¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 40¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$22 +86%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $35 +$19 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $35 +$16 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $40 +$24 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$40 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $28 +$32 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $51 +$33 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$25 -49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$5 -18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group S Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$25 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$29 +93%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $30 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $57 +$29 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$23 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$62 +121%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $83 +$41 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$51 +158%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $25 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $119 +$91 +76%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $129 +$24 +19%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $99 +$104 +105%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$28 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 45¢ $15 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 44¢ $15 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $40 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $15 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $30 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $55 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $51 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 29h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $30 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 35h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $35 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $35 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $25 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $40 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 58¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $25 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $21 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $35 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.86 · official $198.86 (match) · 195 history records