Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93cf…30fd crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-10%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤30d 10 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤90d 10 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -21.9%
all 10 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 50% -21.9%
10% -35.8% 40% -29.4%
15% -42.0% 40% -36.2%
20% -47.7% 20% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$24 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$22 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records