Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x93cd…0148
crypto · 62 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage244d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 0 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $74 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during sp Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" this week? (October 7 - 12) Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET Mar 15 $242 −$106 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/conce Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Mar 15 $139 −$30 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 15 $24 +$349 +1454%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 15 $38 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 15 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 05 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 05 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 05 $173 +$10 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession s Nov 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech? Nov 05 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 05 $174 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 05 $83 +$80 +97%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 05 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET Oct 27 $33 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Oct 27 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Oct 27 $94 +$91 +96%
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31? Oct 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% +$62
world 8% −$34
politics 2% −$19
other 1% −$3
sports 1% +$3
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $74 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $19 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $24 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $24 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 75% 38% -5.3%
≤30d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 75% 38% -5.3%
≤90d 13 -15.8% -23.8% 62% 31% -9.7%
all 62 +5.6% -4.4% 44% 31% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 31% -9.1%
10% -13.6% 27% -17.8%
15% -21.9% 19% -25.8%
20% -29.6% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records