Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x93cd…7f4a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,195 (-39%) realized −$2,105 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$180
14 days−$547
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,851
sports 11% −$321
politics 9% +$87
world 7% −$86
crypto 1% −$30
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -34.5%
≤30d 9 -28.0% -34.9% 33% 33% -58.0%
≤90d 16 -47.8% -52.7% 25% 25% -66.0%
all 35 -38.6% -44.4% 20% 20% -64.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 20% -64.1%
10% -49.7% 20% -67.5%
15% -54.6% 20% -70.6%
20% -59.0% 17% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$99 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$1,666
Realized−$2,105
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions15
Markets (closed)35 / 50
History coverage591d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $404 $306 −$98 (-24%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $146 $285 +$139 (+95%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $72 $212 +$140 (+195%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $193 $189 −$4 (-2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $180 $158 −$22 (-12%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $252 $138 −$114 (-45%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-19%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $70 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-52%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $71 +$61 +87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $132 −$130 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $217 −$217 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $66 −$64 -97%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $15 +$6 +37%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 05 $30 −$15 -49%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $123 −$123 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $136 −$101 -74%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $26 +$87 +335%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $19 +$106 +567%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $194 −$99 -51%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $224 −$181 -81%
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 29 $178 −$103 -58%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $251 −$251 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $296 −$296 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $256 −$224 -88%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 2 at 5PM ET? Aug 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 1? Aug 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $334 +$195 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $199 1h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 21h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $82 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 2d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $10 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $61 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $132 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $152 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 7d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $31 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $45 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,666.49 · official $1,667.09 (match) · 114 history records