Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93cb…3485 sports 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 276d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,386 (+6%) realized +$5,380 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%156W / 189L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$1,742est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$487
14 days−$466
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,186
other 1% +$397
politics 0% −$48
world 0% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.8% -18.4% 30% 30% -31.7%
≤30d 52 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 200 +2.6% -7.1% 44% 30% -4.0%
all 345 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 32% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 32% -4.0%
10% -17.6% 20% -13.2%
15% -25.6% 16% -21.5%
20% -32.9% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$49 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$5,380
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses156 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,742
Open positions5
Markets (closed)345 / 350
History coverage276d ⚠
Avg bet$263
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 65¢ 76¢ $162 $189 +$26 (+16%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $26 $32 +$6 (+25%)
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk Nadia Podoroska $49 $21 −$28 (-57%)
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $2 $3 +$2 (+97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Jun 29 $201 −$32 -16%
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel Jun 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $25 +$65 +263%
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 28 $48 −$28 -58%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 28 $348 +$97 +28%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite Jun 26 $149 −$49 -33%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 24 $15 −$2 -15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $792 −$424 -54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Jun 23 $93 +$89 +96%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $811 −$85 -10%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $98 +$13 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $32 +$34 +105%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 21 $251 +$40 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 21 $217 −$8 -4%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $91 −$20 -22%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $794 −$124 -16%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $500 +$86 +17%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $671 +$79 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1,317 +$167 +13%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $46 −$3 -6%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $732 +$160 +22%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Cattolica (Doubles): Bueno/Meza vs Jong/Hermans Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $574 +$320 +56%
Ilkley (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Riedi/Rocha Jun 11 $357 −$350 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $3,247 −$58 -2%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $111 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $1,271 +$64 +5%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $193 −$51 -26%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $551 −$125 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $1,377 −$184 -13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $72 +$636 +882%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $1,154 −$66 -6%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $60 +$40 +67%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $183 +$39 +21%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $179 +$9 +5%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Tatiana Pieri Jun 05 $99 +$4 +4%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $400 −$127 -32%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $67 −$67 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $58 −$42 -73%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $254 −$20 -8%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $43 +$23 +55%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $52 −$5 -9%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $20 −$19 -98%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $442 +$17 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $164 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Elsa Jacquemot 14¢ $18 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Elsa Jacquemot 14¢ $54 7h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 38¢ $26 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 61¢ $34 10h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 22¢ $10 10h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 22¢ $3 10h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 22¢ $3 10h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 22¢ $9 10h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 63¢ $33 13h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 63¢ $58 17h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic SELL Mika Stojsavljevic 12¢ $19 25h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Elsa Jacquemot 14¢ $72 29h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Antonia Ruzic 43¢ $272 41h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Antonia Ruzic 43¢ $91 44h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Antonia Ruzic 43¢ $1 44h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Elsa Jacquemot 15¢ $25 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Nadia Podoroska $20 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Nadia Podoroska $0 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Nadia Podoroska $0 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Antonia Ruzic 29¢ $81 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 13¢ $22 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $39 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $18 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $17 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 16¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 16¢ $8 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $29 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.85 · official $255.85 (match) · 3500 history records