Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93c8…adff crypto 1357 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,539 (-13%) realized −$4,539 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%594W / 762L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$546
7 days−$546
14 days−$546
30 days−$1,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,390
crypto 44% −$2,319
other 5% −$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -24.9% -32.1% 48% 42% -28.7%
≤30d 654 -19.7% -27.4% 44% 40% -18.4%
≤90d 1356 -20.6% -28.2% 44% 39% -20.3%
all 1356 -20.6% -28.2% 44% 39% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 39% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 34% -27.9%
15% -41.3% 28% -34.9%
20% -47.1% 22% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses594 / 762
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1356 / 1357
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner illwill 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$37 +36%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$9 +9%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $16 +$43 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $210 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Eala Jun 17 $28 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $16 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $20 26m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 0¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $10 41m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $123 52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 58m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 1h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 36¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $140 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $132 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 3500 history records