Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93c6…013d politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$81 (+5%) realized +$10 · open +$71
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$157
14 days−$213
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$10
world 28% +$147
sports 18% −$152
politics 11% +$74
crypto 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -45.4% -50.6% 33% 33% -29.4%
≤30d 6 -46.7% -51.7% 33% 33% -33.6%
≤90d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 50% -9.1%
all 16 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 50% -9.1%
10% -19.2% 50% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 38% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage92d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $207 −$202 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $339 +$216 +64%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $3 $0 -4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $32 +$8 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $102 +$130 +127%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $300 +$2 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $118 +$40 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $27 +$23 +85%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 31 $73 +$26 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 44¢ $104 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $175 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $207 5d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 7d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 93¢ $10 7d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 85¢ $50 7d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $16 11d
Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French p BUY Yes $14 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $2 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $10 15d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 52¢ $26 27d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 53¢ $26 27d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 54¢ $27 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 28d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 28d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 28d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 30d
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 31d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $0 37d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $5 39d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $6 39d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $3 39d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $4 41d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.25 · official $370.26 · 73 history records