Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x93c3…66fa other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$19
politics 19% −$6
tech 6% −$2
sports 4% +$38
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 97 +0.9% -8.7% 15% 11% -9.5%
all 101 +0.9% -8.7% 15% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage93d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $154 $154 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $264 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $575 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $601 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $304 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 24 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $281 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $498 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $529 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $298 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $312 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 12 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $539 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $154 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 14d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 21d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $46 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $46 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $7 29d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $63 30d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $63 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 31d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $280 33d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 33d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $283 34d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $283 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.41 · official $154.41 (match) · 309 history records