Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93bf…4a22 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$906 (-35%) realized −$868 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$210
14 days−$325
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$215
sports 30% −$464
world 18% −$260
crypto 11% −$25
finance 1% +$6
politics 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 75% -45.5%
≤30d 13 -22.9% -30.3% 62% 46% -45.0%
≤90d 42 -48.9% -53.7% 31% 24% -41.1%
all 60 -38.3% -44.1% 30% 25% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 25% -40.4%
10% -49.5% 20% -46.1%
15% -54.4% 13% -51.3%
20% -58.8% 12% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$868
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage112d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 53¢ 26¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 37¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $71 +$15 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $57 +$37 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $116 −$61 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Defuse" be said 5+ times at the Rotterdam Grand Final? Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Apr 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Heaven" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Apr 16 $70 −$56 -80%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 16 $70 −$19 -28%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Apr 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 16 $30 −$19 -63%
Will "Ninja" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final? Mar 29 $50 −$33 -66%
Will "Major" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final? Mar 29 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 29 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Natus Vincere make it to the Blast Open Rotterdam Grand Final? Mar 29 $330 +$196 +60%
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game Mar 27 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $22 +$42 +190%
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 25 $100 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 2? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 15 $17 +$13 +75%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $6 +$11 +186%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -7%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 35m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $61 36m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $86 38m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $35 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $94 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $57 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $41 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $41 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $32 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $255 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $39 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL No 100¢ $62 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 97¢ $60 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $110 12d
Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? BUY No 37¢ $6 65d
Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? BUY No 26¢ $0 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.06 · official $38.55 · 174 history records